February 5, 2023

Promotion Aside

With only the weigh-in remaining most of the promotion/trash talking is about over. Its now time, as they say – to get it on. So what’s this fight going to look like? One can never be sure, but we would anticipate that Mayweather would not chance slugging it out with a stronger, bigger and younger man. With his father Floyd Sr., back in his corner, he will likely continue to be a defense-first fighter as he did against Guerrero. He’ll utilize his superior boxing skills to simply out-box Canelo with footwork and his M.O. shoulder rolls. As to strategy Mayweather himself has stated “I’m going to show him a lot of angles. I have a lot of experience, and experience is going to be a factor. It’s going to be real, real different for him at this level.” Now, provided he doesn’t get caught (a la Austin Trout) he should cruise to victory.

Canelo on the other hand seems to be crafting a strategy based on precedent, studying the Cotto and Castillo fights to create a game-plan. He has admitted as much during his media day “I’ve studied tapes of the fights he (Mayweather) had trouble in, like those against Miguel Cotto and Jose Luis Castillo. I’m looking for ways to penetrate Mayweather’s defense like they did. Cotto had success, but couldn’t maintain it. I plan to maintain it.” If Canelo can improve upon the Cotto and Castillo efforts and demonstrate the improved headwork he showed against Trout he could get a few rounds and make it a competitive, if not overall closer fight. If he get’s really lucky – like Powerball lucky – he could catch Mayweather and shock the world.

The End or the Beginning?

There are some wildcard variables to consider here which could factor into the ultimate outcome. For Canelo, it’s his sheer size and strength. Sometimes a fighter can simply overpower another, no matter how much defensive prowess the other demonstrates. If this turns out to be the case, or if Mayweather gets caught Canelo could indeed be “The One.” For, Mayweather it’s literally his hands. He has a history of injuring them during fights – as he did in the Guerrero match. He was able to outscore Guerrero even with only one hand, but don’t think he can do that against Canelo.

Wildcards aside, we see Mayweather winning a close unanimous or split decision, which could nonetheless result in a re-match. Remember Mayweather is only two fights into a six-fight mega-deal with Showtime. With a no true opposition on the horizon, if it’s a close bout either way you can bet Mayweather-Canelo II is in our future.

Photos by Hoganphotos/GBP

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